%0 Conference Proceedings
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@usergroup administrator
%@usergroup deicy.farabello
%@usergroup administrator
%3 STATGIS09-Rachel-Lowe-finalversion-140509.pdf
%B International Conference: GeoInformatics for Environmental Surveillance, (Fourth StatGIS '2009).
%X The purpose of this study is to assess the potential for using seasonal climate forecasts in an early warning system (EWS) for dengue fever incidence in Brazil. Data at heterogeneous spatial scales were combined in a negative binomial model using dengue fever data at the microregion level for the period January 2001- April 2008, gridded observed climate data with time lags relevant to dengue transmission and other socio-economic and environmental covariates. The same model was then refitted replacing observed climate with seasonal climate forecasts of the same variables issued 5 months previous to the dengue month of interest. Predictions from both models were tested by using the first 7 years as a training dataset to predict the first 4 months of 2008 when a dengue epidemic occurred in Brazil. Both models were able to capture high dengue incidence along the densely populated eastern coast of Brazil and low incidence in the South. The models did not perform so well in the Amazon region. We conclude that seasonal climate forecasts could have potential value in the context of a dengue EWS to predict the climatic conditions that may influence dengue incidence up to 5 months ahead of an epidemic in Brazil.
%@mirrorrepository sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/03.17.15.17.24
%T Climate-based dengue predictions for Brazil
%@format On-line
%@tertiarytype Sessão Técnica Oral
%@secondarytype PRE CI
%K dengue transmission, climatic, forecasts, Amazon region.
%8 17-19 jun.
%@group
%@group
%@group
%@group
%@group DOP-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR
%@e-mailaddress deicy.farabello@cptec.inpe.br
%@secondarykey INPE--PRE/
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2009/07.27.12.41.03
%@affiliation
%@affiliation
%@affiliation
%@affiliation
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2009/07.27.12.41
%D 2009
%A Lowe, Rachel,
%A Bailey, Trevor C.,
%A Stephenson, David B.,
%A Graham, Richard,
%A Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos,
%A Carvalho, Marilia Sá,
%A Barcellos, Christovam,
%C Milos island, Greece
%@area MET