%0 Journal Article
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%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/3EU29DP
%@archivingpolicy denypublisher denyfinaldraft24
%@issn 1364-6826
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%3 how useful.pdf
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/11.21.17.38.01
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/11.21.17.37
%X Waldmeier effect [Waldmeier M., 1955. Ergebnisse und Probleme der Sonnenforschung. Second Ed., Leipzig, p. 154] states that the rise-time of a cycle depends upon a single parameter, namely the sunspot number Rz(max) at the maximum. Strong cycles have a steeper rise, while moderate cycles rise more slowly. In this paper, using the past data for sunspot cycles 1-23, these aspects are re-examined. It was noticed that the inverse relationship between Rz(max) and rise-time is discernable only when average patterns obtained by superposition of several cycles (separately for strong and weak cycles) are compared. In individual cycles, considerable deviations from the average patterns can occur (several tens of units of Rz and several months of rise-time). For a study of the relationship of Rz(max) with features in the early part of a cycle, the features chosen were Ro (i.e., Rz(min)) and Rz values Ra, Rb, and Rc, 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively, later than Ro (only 12-monthly running means were used). Ro had a moderate correlation (<0.6) with Rz(max), but Ra, Rb, Rc had better correlations. For hindsight predictions for cycles 18-23, the predictions for cycle 19 was grossly erroneous (observed value almost double of the predicted value). For other cycles, the errors were within 25%. For cycle 24, the Rz monthly values up to March 2008 give 12-month running means centered in June, July, August, September 2007 as 7.6, 6.5, 5.8, 6.1. Thus, though we cannot be absolutely sure yet that Rz(min) for cycle 24 has occurred, a tentative, provisional prediction using Rz(min) (i.e., Ro) as 5.8 is Rz(max)=113±19, i.e., in the range 94-132. This is an upper limit, as Ro value may reduce further in coming months, but most probably not very much. For Ro=5.0, the prediction would be Rz(max)= 109±17, while in the extreme hypothetical case of Ro=0.0, the prediction would be Rz(max)=79±14.
%8 Aug.
%N 11/12
%T How useful is the Waldmeier effect for prediction of a sunspot cycle?
%@secondarytype PRE PI
%K Predictions, Sunspot cycle, Sunspot maxima, Waldmeier effect.
%@group DGE-CEA-INPE-MCT-BR
%@secondarykey INPE--PRE/
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%B Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
%P 1533-1540
%D 2008
%V 70
%@doi 10.1016/j.jastp.2008.04.010
%A Kane, Rajaram Purushottam,
%@dissemination WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; AGU; MGA; COMPENDEX.
%@area CEA