%0 Journal Article
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@archivingpolicy denypublisher denyfinaldraft
%@usergroup administrator
%@usergroup deicy
%3 met-apps-verification-2008.pdf
%X Probability forecasts from an ensemble are often discretized into a small set of categories before being distributed to the users. This study investigates how such simplification can afect the forecast quality of probabilistic predictions as measured by the Brier score (BS). An example from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational seasonal ensemble forecast system is used to show tha the simplification of the forecast probabilities issued from the ensemble. This is more obvious for a small number of probability categories and is mainly due to a decrease in forecast resolution of up to 36%. The impact of the simplification as a function of the ensemble size is also discussed. The results suggest that forecast quality should be made available for the set of probabilities that the forecast user has access to as well as for the complete set of probabilitites issued by the ensemble forecasting system.
%8 Mar.
%N 1
%@secondarydate 200803
%T How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality?
%@secondarytype PRE PI
%K forecast quality, probability forecasts, ensemble forecasting.
%@visibility shown
%@group
%@group DOP-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR
%@e-mailaddress deicy@cptec.inpe.br
%@secondarykey INPE--PRE/
%@issn 1350-4827
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/07.28.13.53.48
%@affiliation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE/CPTEC)
%@affiliation School of Engineering, Compunting, and Mathematics, University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
%B Meteorological Applications
%P 155-162
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2008/07.28.13.53
%D 2008
%V 15
%@doi 10.1002/met.50
%A Doblas-Reyes, F. J,
%A Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos,
%A Stephenson, D. B,
%@dissemination WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA.
%@area MET