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@InProceedings{GomesRamRemSilChi:2017:StMoEx,
               author = "Gomes, Tiago Francisco Pinheiro and Ramos, Fernando and Rempel, 
                         {\'E}rico Luiz and Silva, Suzana and Chian, Abraham C. -L.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Tecnol{\'o}gico de Aeron{\'a}utica (ITA)} and {Instituto 
                         Tecnol{\'o}gico de Aeron{\'a}utica (ITA)} and {University of 
                         Adelaide}",
                title = "Statistical modeling of extreme values and evidence of presence of 
                         Dragon King (DK) in solar wind",
            booktitle = "Proceedings...",
                 year = "2017",
         organization = "AGU Fall Meeting",
             abstract = "The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system, 
                         presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic 
                         dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems 
                         is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in 
                         several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical 
                         characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This 
                         work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of 
                         the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by 
                         Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is 
                         that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by 
                         the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) 
                         distributions. Both models present a statistically significant 
                         positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the 
                         probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in 
                         return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence 
                         that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values 
                         of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic 
                         reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic 
                         flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings 
                         (DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are 
                         fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic 
                         reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the 
                         possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon 
                         kings had previously been identified in time series of financial 
                         crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so 
                         on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of 
                         extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition, 
                         bifurcation, crises or tipping points.",
  conference-location = "New Orleans",
      conference-year = "11-15 Dec.",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "gomes_statistical.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "2021, Mar. 06"
}


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